Over three-quarters – 76% – of specialist mortgage brokers said they expect the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to hold the base rate at 4.5% this month.
The MPC will announce its decision tomorrow, and a survey conducted by Landbay found that the opinion of brokers aligned with wider expectations.
A fifth of brokers predicted the base rate would be cut tomorrow, and 18% of this cohort said it would be lowered by 25 basis points. Just 2% of the brokers who believed the base rate would fall said it would be a 50 basis point cut.
A minority of respondents said the base rate would increase, with 3% predicting a 25 basis point rise.
Rob Stanton, sales and distribution director at Landbay, said: “The consensus is clearly towards a hold at 4.5%, but a 25-point cut is not unjustified given GDP growth is limping along and needs support. Overall, the bank has been painting a pretty bleak stagflationary picture for 2025 and lower interest rates would mean millions of people will see an immediate drop to their mortgage rates.
“While controversial, two members of the MPC pushed for a 50-point cut last time, so even that isn’t totally outlandish.
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“Should interest rates remain unchanged, which is certainly what we are expecting, it might usher in a period of calm for the buy-to-let sector, which has experienced considerable instability recently with fluctuating borrowing costs and a shifting evolutionary landscape. A decision to hold rates steady could provide a stabilising force for landlords and property investors, who rely heavily on predictable financing costs to sustain rental yields.”
