Every campaign delivers a moment of breakthrough for a club nobody backed. To find 2025-26’s version, we crunched the numbers on 60-plus sides across the continent: budgets, xG trends, spending habits, manager consistency and those first ten fixtures that set the narrative.
Five teams showed the right mix of structure, opportunity, and upward progression. Three more earned “worth watching” status thanks to insider buzz and a whiff of hunger.
How We Picked Them
- Finished outside last year’s title race or automatic promotion slots
- Wage bill no higher than 60% of the top‑six average
- Positive xG differential in 2024‑25
- Clear tactics and playing identity already embedded
- Retained ≥ 75% of last season’s minutes (signals consistency and a solid foundation)
- A friendly early schedule that could build momentum
Got it? Great, let’s meet the possibles and probables.
Nottingham Forest – From Mid‑Table to Europe
Forest broke back into Europe by finishing 7th in the Premier League, doubling last year’s points haul. Murillo topped the league in clearances, Matz Sels shared the Golden Glove, and Nuno’s low‑block/quick‑break plan finally clicked.
Why they might climb another rung:
- Perfect fit up front: Igor Jesus (0.57 npxG in MLS) adds vertical flair and finishing execution.
- Continuity breeds unity: 87% of 24/25 minutes return.
- Kind opener: West Ham, Wolves and new boys Sunderland headline the early Nottingham Forest fixtures. It’s a chance for those first five games to bank points while the CL qualifiers tick along.
Ceiling: 6th‑8th in the league and a cheeky quarter‑final run in Europe.
Atalanta – Serie A’s Serial Over‑Achievers
Gasperini’s side finished third with a +41 goal difference and an even stronger xG profile. Their shape morphs from 3‑4‑1‑2 into 5‑2‑3 on the fly. This unleashes wing‑back Brandon Soppy and Atalanta BC players like Lookman and Scamacca in lightning transition.
Key benchmark Serie A games – Atalanta vs Juventus (MD4), Atalanta vs Milan (MD7) and Atalanta vs Napoli (MD9). Four‑plus points from that trio and the Scudetto whispers grow louder in Bergamo.
Why still a dark horse: A €68 m wage bill, one‑third of Juve’s, keeps outsiders sceptical despite obvious evolution.
Sheffield Wednesday – The Championship’s Late‑Season Tornado
From the 24th of October to the 12th of May, Danny Röhl’s turbo‑press 4‑2‑2‑2 produced 33 points from 18 meetings. Sheffield Wednesday’s standings over the final third of the season matched play‑off pace.
Green lights:
- Rising xG and turnover counts show genuine tactical grit and focus.
- Josh Windass continues to score in bunches, and the dressing‑room chemistry feels right.
Red light:
- A lingering EFL transfer embargo that could unravel cohesion if it drags on.
Verdict: New investment before deadline day turns a top‑six shot from dream to opportunity.
Blackburn Rovers – Press, Kids, Repeat
A February switch to Valérien Ismaël took Rovers from middling to menacing: high‑third ball recoveries jumped from 6.3 to 9.1 per game. Their season‑long xG difference (+0.57) ranked fourth in the league.
Why believe?
- Academy star Adam Wharton replaced veteran minutes and still led the club midfielders in xG+xA.
- Free‑agent winger Femi Godo injects flair out wide and rotation depth when those winter fixtures start stacking.
Ceiling: Sneak sixth, then rely on their pressing tactics and youthful ambition to be the play‑off side nobody wants.
Rangers – Europe’s Wildcard from Glasgow
FC Rangers were runners‑up in Scotland but toppled bigger budgets on their way to a Europa quarter‑final, surviving 77 minutes with ten men in Bilbao. Cyriel Dessers’ 29 goals supply the firepower; set‑pieces deliver the rest.
Why continental giants shouldn’t snooze:
- Set‑pieces: From corners and free-kicks combined, Rangers average 0.34 xG per match from dead balls, the highest of any Europa League quarter-finalist.
- Early Scottish Premiership games v. bottom‑six sides let Philippe Clement (continued from Ferguson note) rest starters for Europe.
What success looks like: another deep Europa run; domestically, Celtic remain favourites.
Three More to Keep on the Radar
| Club | The Quick Hook | One Stat That Pops |
| Millwall | Possible Saudi investment + top‑five defence after January | Conceded just 0.19 set‑piece goals per 90 in the run‑in |
| Queens Park Rangers | Smart window, new coach, tight Loftus Road pitch suits high press | +8 aggregate goal difference in four pre-season matches against EFL opposition |
| Bologna | Coppa Italia win on €45 m payroll signals sustainable breakthrough | 57% of open‑play goals came from turnovers in under 10 seconds |
F.A.Q.
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What makes a club a “dark horse”?
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Who fits that mould for the 25/26 season?
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How do underdog teams mess with Europe’s elite?
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What usually sparks a surprise run?
