Under Arne Slot, Liverpool have kept a version of the gegenpressing style made famous by Jurgen Klopp. Mikel Arteta has shaped Arsenal into a measured possession side.
The Reds’ fluid positional movement against the Gunners’ measured possession is a live arena for bettors seeking an edge.
Using Premier League stats and in-depth EPL analysis, we explain how each approach affects betting outcomes. We indicate which style often serves the bettor.
This analysis supports decision-making and does not replace your judgment.
Tactical Breakdown: Liverpool’s Fluid and Calculated Possession Game Under Arne Slot
Arne Slot’s time with the Reds, especially in the title-winning 2024/25 season, has been characterised by a calculated approach to possession, at least that’s what Total Football (TFA) says. The key tactical features include patient build-up play and a high-intensity pressing designed to establish control through technical and tactical superiority.
Moreover, Liverpool displayed fluidity in the inside-channel spaces. In the coach’s first 11 2024/25 Premier League games, the Reds recorded the third-highest average possession (56.8%) in the EPL.
Adopting a 4-2-3-1 lineup with the ball, wingers, usually Mohamed Salah and Luis Diaz or Cody Gakpo, maintained the width. This put them in positions to attack opponents 1v1 as often as possible. The result was Premier League-high dribbles for Salah (57) and Diaz (45).
Defensively, the squad improved under Slot in the 2024/25 season. Ryan Gravenberch had the most interceptions (57), ahead of second-placed Moises Caicedo (47) and third-placed Christian Norgaard (42). Alexs Mac Allister was fifth among midfielders with the most tackles. He had 95 compared to leaders Idrissa Gueye (123), Moises Caicedo (100), and Joao Gomes (99).
This style shapes a bettor’s approach and perception of available options. For example, possession, dribble and carry, total passes, passing accuracy, Under/Over goals, and shots and corners are the most affected markets for Liverpool.
Tactical Breakdown: Arsenal’s Controlled Possession Play
Key Stats: Possession %, Passing Accuracy, Build-Up Attacks
Category | Statistic | Source |
Possession (%) | 57.10% | StatMuse |
Passing Accuracy | 87.2% (calculated from passes completed/passes attempted) | 1. Fbref |
Build-Up Attacks | 69 goals scored, 546 shots, and 59.9 xG (expected goals) | 2. Fbref and Sports Mole |
Touches in the Attacking third | 7808 | 3. FBref |
Touches in the Attacking Penalty Area | 1282 | 4. FBref |
In 2024/25, Arsenal finished second in the EPL with 74 points. The team showed a slight drop in attack compared to the previous season, scoring 22 fewer goals in the Premier League. The Gunners had the best defensive record in the league for a second consecutive season, conceding just 34 goals.
Arsenal’s Risk Management and Game Control Tactics
The 2024/25 season provides the best view and understanding of Arsenal’s risk management and game control tactics. The core facets of game control and management include defensive solidity, possession and tempo, and tactical issues as illustrated below:
Defensive Record
Category | Statistic (Premier League 2024/25) | Tactic Indicated | Source |
Defensive Record | Fewest goals conceded (34) | Strong risk management; they prioritised defensive stability | Arsenal |
Defensive Record | Lowest xG conceded (35) | They consistently restricted opponents to low-quality chances | Arsenal |
Defensive Record | Fewest shots on target faced (9.5 per game) | Kept opponents at a comfortable distance from goal. | You Are My Arsenal |
Game State
Category | Statistic (Premier League 2024/25) | Tactic Indicated | Source |
Game State | Fewest matches trailing (11) | Exceptional at starting matches on the front foot and avoiding early risks. | Cannon Stats |
Game State | Points recovered from losing position (13) | Resilient and capable of maintaining composure to fight back. | Canon Stats |
Game Control
Category | Statistic (Premier League 2024/25) | Tactic Indicated | Source |
Game Control | 57.1% average possession | Controlled tempo and flow of matches by dominating possession. | StatMuse |
Game Control | 89.6% short pass share | Low-risk passing to maintain possession and build from the back. | Premier League |
Tactical Issue
Category | Statistic (Premier League 2024/25) | Tactic Indicated | Source |
Tactical Issue | Lowest lead-to-win conversion rate (66.7%) | Failed to manage games decisively after taking an early lead, leading to dropped points. | Cannon Stats |
Tactical Issue | Underperformance in draws | Attack became less effective when drawing, indicating a potential struggle to adapt when the initial game plan failed. | Cannon Stats |
Head-to-Head Results: What History Tells Us
Last 10 Meetings: Win/Loss/Draw Trends
Date | Competition | Home Team | Away Team | Score | Result |
31-Aug-25 | Premier League | Liverpool | Arsenal | 1-0 | Liverpool win |
11-May-25 | Premier League | Liverpool | Arsenal | 2-2 | Draw |
27-Oct-24 | Premier League | Arsenal | Liverpool | 2-2 | Draw |
4-Feb-24 | Premier League | Arsenal | Liverpool | 3-1 | Arsenal win |
7-Jan-24 | FA Cup | Arsenal | Liverpool | 0-2 | Liverpool win |
23-Dec-23 | Premier League | Liverpool | Arsenal | 1-1 | Draw |
9-Apr-23 | Premier League | Liverpool | Arsenal | 2-2 | Draw |
9-Oct-22 | Premier League | Arsenal | Liverpool | 3-2 | Arsenal win |
16-Mar-22 | Premier League | Arsenal | Liverpool | 0-2 | Liverpool win |
20-Jan-22 | EFL Cup | Arsenal | Liverpool | 0-2 | Liverpool win |
Sources: Sports Mole, Transfermarkt, StatMuse, and Sky Sports
Based on the last 10 meetings across all competitions between the two clubs, Liverpool have the edge. The Reds won four and drew four. The Gunners won twice.
A lot of Premier League matches skew this fixture toward Arsenal. Before their first meeting in 2025/26 at Anfield, they’d gone unbeaten against the Reds in five straight games.
Four of the previous six meetings Head-to-Heads ended in a draw, including 2-2 stalemates. This shows that meetings between these clubs are potentially high-scoring.
Over/Under Goal Totals
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
- In 7 of the last 10 matches, the total number of goals scored was over 2.5.
- Only three out of the last 10 fixtures between Liverpool and Arsenal finished with under 2.5 goals. The most recent meeting at Anfield ended in a 1-0 Liverpool win in August 2025. This result is a departure from the recent high-scoring trend.
Over/Under 3.5 Goals
- Five of the last 10 meetings between Liverpool and Arsenal (50% of the matches) have had over 3.5 goals. All five were EPL encounters.
- The remaining five games of the last ten H-to-Hs saw three goals or fewer, including the two cup fixtures that were low-scoring.
The Over/Under goal totals statistics have been sourced from Sports Mole, Transfermarkt, StatMuse, and Sky Sports.
Conclusion
This analysis shows that neither Liverpool’s fluid attack nor Arsenal’s structured possession guarantees a winning bet in their head-to-head meetings. The fixtures often deliver high goal totals and frequent draws.
Wagers on high totals or both teams to score are typically steadier than picking a side. Data suggests that form and injuries can outweigh pure tactics on the day.
For a higher-risk approach, Liverpool’s fluid possession can trigger swings and higher scores. That profile suits Over 2.5 Goals and BTTS selections.
Arsenal’s controlled style points to tighter, lower-variance results. Consider half-time markets and Under 2.5 Goals in those situations.
Adjust stakes to match your judgment and the match’s context. Account for venue, squad availability, and each team’s evolution and tactics.
Responsible Gambling
Before betting, be sure to come up with firm boundaries for how much time and money you are willing and able to commit to this exercise. If you find yourself in a losing streak, resist the urge to chase losses, as this can result in larger losses and bigger problems.
If gambling starts to dominate your mind all the time, or you start hiding your activity, or you begin using money meant for essentials, it is time to take a step back. You are not alone. Support systems exist that can offer confidential help; these include gambleaware.org. Visit our Responsible Gambling page for more advice and guidance.
This content only offers you a guide and not an encouragement to bet beyond your means. The emphasis should be on the entertainment and not a way to solve financial issues.
F.A.Q.
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Which team has increased betting ROI in the Premier League?
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Is it better to bet on goals or results in this matchup?
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How do tactical styles affect in-play betting?
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What’s the best betting market for Liverpool vs Arsenal games?